Price targets, stocks to watch, profit-taking strategies — answers to questions about all three
Here’s our Club Mailbag email investingclubmailbag@cnbc.com — so you send your questions directly to Jim Cramer and his team of analysts. We can’t offer personal investing advice. We will only consider more general questions about the investment process or stocks in the portfolio or related industries. Question 1: The stocks in the Trust have astonishingly different P/Es. With this in mind, how can a price target be established for each of them? Thank you. I find the Club to be fascinating. —Marc M. Price targets are part art and part science. While the art portion can be more subjective at times, the most important thing to keep in mind when thinking about the correct multiple to put on a stock is the “comp,” meaning the thing we are comparing that stock to. The two primary comps are going to be the peer group (those companies most similar to the one in question) and the multiple investors paid in the past. What we don’t want to do is think about what the appropriate multiple should be by examining companies that don’t represent an apples-to-apples comparison. A stock’s multiple (and we like looking at the forward multiple) is calculated by dividing the current shares price by earnings estimates for the next 12 months. For example, we wouldn’t look at the multiple investors are willing to pay for Club stocks Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) or Coterra Energy (CTRA) in an attempt to determine the correct multiple for Microsoft (MSFT). We would have to consider the multiples of Pioneer and Coterra in regard to one another (and other U.S.-based exploration and production companies) because both are U.S.-based exploration and production (E & P) companies. We would then consider whether one should or should not demand a higher or lower multiple versus the other. Based on our price targets of $259 for PXD and $30 for CTRA, the forward P/E multiple that we think represents fair value is roughly 12 times for PXD and roughly 11 times for CTRA. That’s below what investors have paid for PXD over the last five years and about in line with what they’ve paid for Coterra in that time frame. Based on our price target of $400 for MSFT, the forward P/E we think represents fair value is about 33 times. That’s several turns above the historic average, but we think it’s justified given the opportunity generative AI represents for Microsoft to charge customers more for their software to help them reduce costs, thanks to the efficiency gains these AI offerings can bring about. Like most investors, we are willing to pay more for the high-growth potential that we see in tech, whereas an oil name investment thesis is more income-oriented via dividends and stock buybacks. Once we have an idea of what these multiples are, we can begin to make adjustments based on the merits of the company in question versus what peers have going for them or what the company looked like in the past. It’s also worth watching the overall market’s multiple to see how much of a premium or how much of a bargain the stock in question may be. As of this writing, the forward P/E on the S & P 500 was just over 19 times. For further reading on how to determine an appropriate price target based on multiples, check out our commentary dedicated to the process. Question 2: If I am just starting with the Investment Club and have some money to invest, how do I achieve a balanced portfolio that mirrors the Investment Club’s? Do I just purchase stocks with a 1 rating, but then I am not balanced through all sectors? Thanks, Brian The last part of the question is exactly why our general rule of thumb, for those just getting started, is that the first $10,000 should go into a diversified index fund, such as an S & P 500 index fund. This will ensure diversification from the very start of your investing journey. From there, you are correct: start looking for 1-rated Club holdings to augment your portfolio. (That information can be found on our portfolio page .) Our “1 rating” is our way of communicating to members that in the current market landscape, a stock is a buy at current levels. Keep in mind that on any given day, there could be big price swings, so our daily commentary should take priority over our ratings as it will always be more real-time in nature. (We provided additional thoughts on how to go about the research and how to start adding names.) That said, as you add names, you will of course be altering the makeup of your portfolio in terms of sector exposure. So, be sure to remain mindful of the sector breakdown of any ETFs or index funds you already own. (Here’s a breakdown of the S & P 500’s sector weighting .) Another thing we would add: We generally advise individual investors to own no more than five to 10 stocks. That’s because it takes about one hour of homework per day, per stock to keep on top of your positions. We have Jim Cramer and two analysts and a team of reporters and editors covering the 30 some stocks in the Club portfolio. Unless you are looking for a second job, five to 10 hours per week of homework feels about right for most investors. A follow-up question that sometimes comes up is: “I own five stocks but don’t feel comfortable with any single stock being in excess of 10% of my portfolio. How do I reconcile this if I don’t want to be 50% in cash?” It’s a valid concern and to reconcile these views — wanting to be more invested but not own more names due to the time commitment and not wanting to be so heavy in cash — we would point you right back to that S & P 500 index holding. We say $10,000 as a starting point to ensure diversification from the start. That said, you can always allocate more funds to that position as a means of putting more money to work in a more passive way without feeling the need to increase individual stock exposure beyond a comfortable level. For example, you may opt to hold five individual stocks at 10% each and an S & P 500 index fund at 40%. Then your equity portfolio would be 90% invested and the rest could be cash. To be clear, this is not a recommendation on portfolio allocation, only an example of how one may use an index fund to get more money to work in a more passive way while maintaining a more actively invested portion of your portfolio. Question 3: When trimming shares to take some profits, is it typically more profitable over time, to trim the shares with a low-cost basis or a high-cost basis? Sincerely, Donna M. The concern with which lots one should sell isn’t so much about profits as it is about tax implications. The Club is a Charitable Trust and is, therefore, required to distribute all portfolio income and realized capital gains to qualified publicly supported charitable organizations. As a result, we stick to the default sales method first-in, first-out, or FIFO. This means that the oldest shares are going to be the first ones sold. That said, for most investors not trading in a tax-advantaged account, a sale is going to have some kind of tax implication based on the profits realized or the loss taken with the sales. While we can’t get into too much detail (as we cannot offer individual investing advice), remember that long-term capital gains rates on stocks owned for more than 1 year differ from short-term capital gains rates on stocks owned for less than 1 year, which are taxed as income. So, remember that if your goal is to raise cash, your concern shouldn’t be so much about which lots you can sell in order to realize more profits, it should be about which lot you can sell while paying the least in taxes. If you’ve got a position that you are up on overall but within which there are lots that are losers and your goal is to trim that position, you may even consider selling the losers in order to tax loss harvest. That’s all we can really offer up on the matter as anything beyond this would best be discussed with your accountant as they will know what is best given your own unique circumstances. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Here’s our Club Mailbag email investingclubmailbag@cnbc.com — so you send your questions directly to Jim Cramer and his team of analysts. We can’t offer personal investing advice. We will only consider more general questions about the investment process or stocks in the portfolio or related industries.
Question 1: The stocks in the Trust have astonishingly different P/Es. With this in mind, how can a price target be established for each of them? Thank you. I find the Club to be fascinating. —Marc M.
